Weekly Briefing: Higher Lows or Head Fakes?

Weekly Roadmap for 04/20-04/26

Happy Easter! Hope you’re all enjoying the long weekend and stepping away from the screens…

First of all before we start I encourage everyone to read our latest thematic equity thesis on Energy which can be found here:

From Wells to Warheads

As always you can find our most current holdings and current performance at the link below:

While the calendar was light on economic data last week, volatility didn’t take the week off. The ongoing trade-war saga delivered another round of tit-for-tat moves between the U.S. and China, keeping markets on edge.

The week started on a positive note after the U.S. announced that semiconductors and electronics would be exempt from the 145% China tariffs, instead facing a reduced 20% rate, offering a clear signal of easing on key sectors. But optimism didn’t last. Midweek, China struck back by banning rare earth exports to the U.S. and halting Boeing purchases. In response, Trump moved to block Nvidia’s H20 chips from being sold to China.

Markets reacted swiftly. The Nasdaq-100 (QQQ), which was up nearly 1.5% early in the week, reversed sharply to close down 2.3%. Small-caps ended up as the only major index in the green, while the Dow lagged, weighed down by a surprise earnings miss from UNH.

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📅 Upcoming Economic Data: Quiet, But Watch the Headlines

This coming week looks relatively quiet from a data perspective. We’ve got:

• A few Treasury auctions

• Some Fed speakers

• The usual jobless claims report on Thursday

• A handful of sentiment surveys

But let’s be honest… the real driver remains the trade war.

Despite the 90-day delay announced the week prior, we’ve yet to see a formal trade agreement materialize. Comments this weekend from Hassett hint at a “flurry of action on trade next week,” so we’ll see if the talk turns into traction. There's also a growing diplomatic push for a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire, with Zelenskyy signaling openness and Putin reportedly in agreement. Another geopolitical wildcard to track.

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SPX: Higher Low or False Hope?